The Difference Makers
The Red Bull and the McLaren were roughly on par in Imola, so other factors decided the outcome.
The most important difference maker in Formula 1 is the car. This platitude is boringly obvious to anyone who has followed the sport for more than one season. The more superior machinery a team has, the less vulnerable it is to the brilliance of a driver or the strategic acumen of their competitors, as well as random events like neutralization. Pace usually triumphs everything. Just look at Mercedes' dominance from 2014 to 2016.
Fortunately for ratings and fans worldwide, the sport, in general, is not as gloomy as the period referenced in the previous sentence. Once the cars are relatively close in performance, other factors come into play, as they did in yesterday's race at Imola.
The Daring Opportunist
One of the key traits of exceptional drivers is their ability to capitalize on nearly every opportunity that arises. This is precisely what Max Verstappen did at Tamburello at the start of the race.
Although his initial getaway had been rather meh, he quickly took advantage of the fact that Oscar Piastri was more focused on defending the inside line, thereby eliminating any opportunity for George Russell to launch an attack. As they approached the braking zone, the Dutchman found himself not only trailing the McLaren but also a front axle behind the Mercedes.
Instead of defending his second place, he went for the lead. He braked a week later than both Russell and Piastri. I’m obviously exaggerating, but that’s the best way I can describe the overtake.
Braking on the racing line, Verstappen had more grip than the McLaren driver. He also had more bravado on the brakes, closing the distance just before the corner. Then he just brave it out on the outside, placing his front wing ahead at the first apex of the Tamburello section. According to the new guidelines, this meant he was entitled to space. From that point on, it was essentially game over.
The Big Brains
Once the Red Bull daringly forced his way into the lead, he controlled the race from lap 1 to the very end, which was surprisingly effortless, partly due to the strategists at McLaren.
Piastri managed to stay more or less 1.5 seconds behind Verstappen for the first 9 laps of the race. However, in the subsequent 3 laps, he lost over a second. McLaren then decided to pit their driver, opting for a two-stop strategy.
To be fair, they weren’t the only ones to blunder. Russell, Carlos Sainz, Fernando Alonso, Lance Stroll, and Charles Leclerc also pitted early, driven by either strategy or a perceived drop in pace. However, after a few laps, it became clear that the drop in pace was only temporary. As Lando Norris’ engineer described it, the tires “came back.”
Everyone who stayed out, gained. Even without the VSC and full neutralization, a one-stop strategy appeared better than a two-stop, particularly considering the traffic that Piastri had to navigate. The traffic cost him time and tire offset. He lost the battle for victory during his first pit stop.
Red Bull's strategists, led by Hannah Schmitz, made the right call.
Zero Leadership
It was Piastri’s teammate who had the opportunity to, if not win, at least make Verstappen’s Sunday much more challenging than it was. After the late race neutralization, Norris sat in P3 behind Piastri. The Brit had much fresher tires than his teammate.
The most rational thing to do was instruct Piastri to allow Norris to pass as quickly as possible. However, what is absent from the previous statement is the phrase "if you care about winning." I wonder if they do at McLaren? It appears to me that the feelings of their drivers take precedence.
Winning is the ultimate goal of racing. If it’s not at the top of your priorities in Formula 1, then what are you doing there?
Piastri is not made of porcelain. He would have understood the situation, and it wouldn’t have bothered him for long. Just as Nico Rosberg understood why Mercedes instructed him to move over for Lewis Hamilton during the 2016 Monaco Grand Prix.
In situations like the one at Imola, a leader may need to make unpopular decisions, similar to those made by Jean Todt during Ferrari's heyday in the 2000s. He recognized that it was his responsibility as a team boss to do it.
Not without reason do I bring up the Frenchman, as Andrea Stella, the Team Principal at McLaren, was part of that Ferrari team. It seems he didn't learn much from Todt.
Luck of the Draw
I recently asserted that the VSC and full neutralization have replaced the wild card that, in the past, was influenced by oil left on the track from a blown engine, which used to affect races. Thank you Imola for supporting my argument.
Whether one likes it or not, the element of luck—both good and bad—continues to influence the races. How badly it may mess with a driver’s fortune was colorfully expressed on the radio by Leclerc and Alonso.
That’s one side of the coin, of course. Those who benefited won’t complain, especially the winner, as the VSC provided him with a free pit stop and consequently an 18-second lead over Norris.
Does Verstappen Have a Shot?
In Imola Verstappen and Red Bull’s strategists and obviously luck made the difference. I don’t think the first two would be possible to excel without the car, at least in the Dutchman’s hands, being on par with the McLaren, if not better.
The victory, coupled with the upcoming clampdown on flexi wings in two weeks at Barcelona—expected to impact McLaren more than Red Bull—paints an optimistic picture for the championship, suggesting it may remain competitive or even come down to the wire.
That’s certainly what Verstappen fans hope for; the closer the Red Bull and McLaren are in performance, the greater the impact he, along with Schmitz, can make.
As of now, I remain skeptical. So far, we have observed that Red Bull excels in fast corners, and there is no shortage of them in Suzuka, Jeddah, and Imola. In contrast, McLaren performs well in every type of corners. Especially the slow ones, which have been Red Bull's weakness.
The circuits of Monaco and Canada should give us a hint whether Verstappen will be a competitor to the McLaren duo or merely a disruptor in their battle.