Will Red Bull Go Back to Dominance, Or the Top Will Stay Competitive?

The upcoming Spanish Grand Prix should give us a hint.

In modern news cycle hot topics often have a lifespan of a bubblegum. They’re chewed until the taste is gone, then thrown into a trash can or spat out on a sidewalk, where they lie until being cleaned up, or until they’ll stick to someone’s sole.

F1 is no different. Does anyone remember Horner affair? Does the civil war at Red Bull ring a bell? Austria vs. Thailand, Mintzlaff vs. Yoovidhya, the heated argument between Team Prinpical and Jos Verstappen caught on camera in Bahrain, Max’s overt support of Helmut Marko in Saudi Arabia, the rumored peace talks… It all seems like it happened a year, or two ago. The taste is gone.

Even the speculations about a future employer of Adrian Newey, who will officially leave Red Bull in the first quarter of 2025 have stopped bubbling like boiling water. They’re cooling. The heat will turn up once Newey will sign a new contract. Until then it’s a side dish, not a main course.

The Shift

The Red Bull civil war and Newey’s departure were flavors of the time, because frankly, from competitive point of view there wasn’t much to talk about. The team from Milton Keynes had clear advantage over the rest of the pack, so naturally off track drama seemed more exciting than a non-existent championship fight.

But things have changed since the F1 circus left Asia. Lando Norris won his first Grand Prix, Charles Leclerc triumphed in his hometown, Mercedes had a surprise resurgence in Canada. Sport has come out of the shadow of the off track drama and speculations.

Dominance and Struggle

What you see above are average qualifying gaps to Red Bull. There is a clear difference between the last four races and the beginning of the season. McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes have closed the gap. So it seems.

Max Verstappen took seven consecutive pole positions this year, but for the last two, he had to work harder than in Saudi Arabia or China. Same story with victories.

Wins at Imola and Montreal weren’t Sunday cruises. That’s partially because the RB20 is not very fond of bumps and kerbs. However, according to Verstappen, Red Bull can find a fix without compromising the areas in which the car is strong.

The car having issues is only a part of the story. The chasing pack breathing at their neck is the other.

McLaren

McLaren, as of now, look like Red Bull’s main competitor. They won in Miami. They’re the only team to stand on the podium in every race since F1 left Asia. And arguably they could have won more than one race in Miami, if Piastri hadn’t made mistakes on his runs in Q3 in Monaco, and the timing of the Safety Car had been different in Canada.

Mclaren have been constantly and consistently improving since Andrea Stella became a Team Principal last year. Their car got better since Bahrain and looks competitive on every type of circuit.

And the drivers are very strong.

Oscar Piastri in particular is worth paying attention to. The Aussie is very close to his teammate in qualifying, but can’t match Norris over a race distance. Piastri often shows impressive pace but only for a limited amount of laps, or rather limited amount of grip. Tire management is the name of the game in modern F1 and the Aussie hasn’t been able to extend tire life as well as his more experienced competitors. However experience is something his getting more and more with every race. And the rate of his improvement might be a wild card in McLaren’s duel with the rest of the chasing pack and maybe even Red Bull.

Ferrari

Fred Vasseur has made a positive impact on the team they’re in much better shape than a year ago. The car no longer melts tires like a mouth of a toddler with no impulse control a chocolate bar. And their strategy has been best in years. Some may complain about Canada, but I would argue gambling on the weather when you’re nowhere and don’t have much to lose is a reasonable risk to take.

Leclerc has been one of the most consistent drivers on the grid, finishing every race this year bar Canada in top 4. Sainz has performed very well. They’re second and forth in drivers standings. They’ve been the strongest pairing on the grid.

As of now the main problem keeping busy the heads in Maranello is tire warm-up in cold conditions, which caused the last no show in Montreal.

Mercedes

The team from Brackley is the biggest mystery. Since the reintroduction of the ground effect they’ve been stuck in a bipolar cycle: good race - we finally understand our car, followed by bad race - we missed something, we had a correlation issue. Cloud nine followed by blue Monday. Since 2022 consistency hasn’t been their forte.

The fact that Mercedes has always been good in Canada, even in the current regulations doesn’t help either. It’s really hard to judge whether they are trending upwards or it’s just a temporary peak of a sine wave.

Mercedes had an opportunity to win in Canada, but Russell, according to his own admission, had an ugly race. As of now, he’s their lead driver. Hamilton has underperformed. The question is whether it’s a temporary slump, he has mentally checked out, or the biological reality called ageing has accelerated?

The Oracle of Barcelona

Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes will bring updates to Barcelona and the same can be expected from Red Bull. The team from Milton Keynes probably breathed the sigh of relief after Canada. They left four not so friendly to their car tracks with two wins in the bag. The smooth surface and the nature of Circuit de Catalunya should suit the RB20. We should see Red Bull at their best, hypothetically.

They come to Barcelona as favorites. The question is how far ahead of the competition they’ll be? We know they’ve struggled and the others have improved. Now we’ll know whether the former, or the latter played a bigger part in the recent four races.

The Championships: One Closed, One Open?

Drivers trophy seems to have Max Verstappen already engraved on it. The Dutchman can win even if his machinery is not the best on a given day. That’s something all-time great drivers do. However they can’t win the constructor title on their own or at least it’s a rather difficult task, when competition is hot on their heels.

Red Bull’s problem as of lately is the second seat. Sergio Perez, after good beginning of the season, had three poor weekends, with Monaco and Canada being outright disasters. If his performance doesn’t improve, we might as well see other team snatching the WCC from Red Bull. And the closer the field, the more likely it is to happen.

Ferrari is only 49 points behind, McLaren 89. Not a big cushion with fifteen races still to go. Red Bull’s rivals can rely on both drivers regularly scoring points and taking occasional victories. Perez is their ally, if his performance dip continues.

On the other hand, Ferrari and McLaren not only compete with Red Bull, but with each other. And there is also Mercedes, who possibly, can take away points from them. Such a situation would only play into Red Bull’s hand when they’re strong, but not on off weekends like in Monaco.

There is a few variables, possibilities and scenarios. One of them being Red Bull going back to dominance. Barcelona should tell us, or at least give a glimpse if we can hope for some excitement in the constructors fight.