The Oracle of Melbourne
For more than a decade the Australian Grand Prix used to quite accurately predict the the world champion.
In a few days, the 2025 Formula 1 Championship will kick off in Melbourne. I’m pleased that, though only temporarily, the Australian Grand Prix is returning as the season opener. I believe many long-time fans, accustomed to this tradition, share my sentiment, albeit for various reasons.
I don’t like the track, and I would change it to Adelaide in a heartbeat. The sooner we can check off Melbourne, the better. I used to be excited about it, primarily due to my craving for racing after long winter breaks.
In the era of refueling, the circuit provided an additional reason to get hyped or depressed about the final results: it served as a strong predictor of the future world champion.
Out of 14 seasons, the eventual winner of the Australian Grand Prix has been crowned champion 10 times. This is an above 70% success rate.
Melbourne has lost its divining power once refueling was eliminated from Formula 1. In fact, its record is quite disappointing. You can count on one hand the number of drivers who have won the Australian Grand Prix on their way to securing the championship: Sebastian Vettel (2011), Lewis Hamilton (2015), Nico Rosberg (2016), and Max Verstappen (2023).
Therefore, whoever wins the race on Sunday—likely one of the McLaren drivers, if we are to believe the pre-season testing—will not necessarily be crowned champion at the end of the season.
Frankly, I prefer it that way.