Red Bull or Mercedes, Who Had the Faster Car in 2021?
An attempt at answering the question.
The 2021 season has showcased one of the most intense championship battles in years, marked with drama and controversies surrounding the rivalry between two all-time greats: Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton. This season, with all its complexities, will likely remain a point of contention among fans of the championship protagonists for years to come, as well as a subject of heated debate.
One of the key issues is determining which team had the better car in 2021: Red Bull or Mercedes? Hamilton fans often cite Adrian Newey's opinion, who stated that, on average, the Milton Keynes team had the faster car. In contrast, Toto Wolff in 2022 expressed a differing viewpoint, which has provided a counterargument for those who support Verstappen.
So we have words vs. words, and whom one believes depends on whether their allegiance lies with Verstappen or Hamilton. But what do the numbers say?
Qualifying
To the surprise of no one, the best lap times collected from all qualifying sessions, except for the two rain-affected events in Belgium and Russia, reflect the highly competitive nature of the season. On average, Mercedes outperforms Red Bull by 0.080%, which translates to a difference of 0.068 seconds on a 1:25 lap. Additionally, the head-to-head duel slightly favors Mercedes 12-10.
Of course, the teams didn’t field the same cars, and they also weren’t represented by identical drivers. This is the main flaw in this comparison. Ideally, if both the Mercedes and the Red Bull were driven by the same driver, it would provide us with the most legitimate answer. Obviously, that’s not how racing is done.
Race Pace
Race pace is the average time of the fastest Red Bull and Mercedes in a given race, calculated from nearly all laps. The ones excluded are the opening lap, which is typically one of the slowest, laps during neutralization periods (whether under a Virtual Safety Car or a regular safety car), pit laps, out laps, and the final lap.
The reasoning behind the latter is the one-point incentive for achieving the fastest lap, which was in place at the time. Often, at the end of races, either Verstappen, Hamilton, or one of their teammates would pit for fresh tires and set the timing screen ablaze to secure a single point, or, more importantly, to deny it to their rivals. These laps were such outliers that, when combined with the rival easing off, they sometimes skewed the results. For example, if the final lap of the Dutch Grand Prix is included, due to the reasons mentioned above, Mercedes appears to be the faster car.
Dirty Air, Strategy & the Drivers
Dirty air has not only posed challenges on Formula 1 circuits, making it difficult to follow the car ahead, but it also complicates this type of analysis. Ideally, all laps would be completed in clean air, free from turbulence; but again, that's not how racing is done.
Some attempt to address the issue of dirty air by only counting laps in which a given driver maintained at least a 2-second gap from the car in front of them. While this approach would significantly reduce the number of eligible laps, it would also render certain races—Monaco being a prime example—ineligible altogether.
Of the two options, I chose the approach described in the section below. I want to ensure that readers are aware of all its caveats.
Race pace does not always accurately reflect the pure speed of a driver and their car; it is also influenced by the strategy employed during the race. A good example of this can be seen in France.
Verstappen and Hamilton, both all-time great talents and the fastest drivers on their teams, are far more likely to maximize the performance of their respective machines and approach their hypothetical limits than their teammates, Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas.
Fortunately, in 17 out of the 21 grand prix that count (there were no racing laps under the green flag in Belgium), the pace of the cars is represented by Hamilton and Verstappen. In Austria and Turkey, it is Bottas and Verstappen, while Hamilton and Perez represent Britain. Finally, both Mercedes and Red Bull's second drivers are represented in Italy.
I believe I have mentioned all the important caveats and details of this analysis. So, without further ado, here are the results.
Just looking at the numbers, head-to-head, Mercedes is slightly ahead 11-10. However, not every race is as relatively straightforward as, let's say Turkey or Mexico.
The Eyebrow Raiser
The most confusing result on the graph, at least at first glance, is clearly Abu Dhabi, as the average race time indicates that Red Bull was the faster car. This is rather counter intuitive, considering how Hamilton relatively easily controlled the race until the fateful crash between Nicholas Latifi and Mick Schumacher. There are two reasons for this.
The first one is Perez holding up Hamilton during laps 20 and 21, which cost the race leader a total of 6.972 seconds. If these laps are excluded, Hamilton's average race pace is 1:27.731, making it 0.158 seconds faster than Verstappen's pace.
The second reason is the brief VSC period between laps 36 and 38. Verstappen capitalized on this opportunity to pit for new tires. Fresh rubber provides increased grip, resulting in faster lap times. This is also why the Red Bull driver was able to reduce the gap to the leader from 15.730 seconds on lap 39 to 11.909 seconds on lap 52, after having previously trailed the Mercedes driver by an increasingly larger margin.
Up to lap 35, just before the VSC, the average pace for the leading duo was as follows: Hamilton 1:28.309 (Perez holding him up included), while Verstappen 1:28.460.
The Abu Dhabi example vividly illustrates how traffic and strategy can affect average race pace, which does not necessarily represent, for lack of a better term, true pace of the cars.
Closer Than It Looks
Imola and Paul Ricard are further examples of this, as the average gaps are larger than they are in reality for various reasons.
In the case of the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, it was the traffic that Hamilton had to navigate after going off the track before the red flag. As a result, he found himself in P8 at the restart and needed to overtake six cars, while Verstappen enjoyed clean air in the lead.
Before any of the aforementioned, the title rivals had been closely matching each other's pace. By the 30th lap, their times were separated by a mere 0.053 seconds, with the Red Bull driver clocking in at 1:28.615 and his Mercedes counterpart at 1:28.669. Verstappen had pulled away when the track was wet, while Hamilton closed the gap as conditions improved.
At the Paul Ricard circuit, Red Bull and Mercedes were closer in performance than the average race pace suggests. The key factor behind this was strategy.
Verstappen made his second pit stop on lap 32, which allowed him to benefit from increased grip and pace compared to his rival on a one stopper. However, prior to their strategies diverging, the championship contenders had lapped within just 0.044 seconds of each other, with Verstappen averaging 1:38.672 and Hamilton 1:38.716.
The one positive aspect of this period up to lap 31 is that both drivers led the race, allowing them to enjoy the advantage of clean air—Hamilton for 17 laps and Verstappen for 12. The Mercedes driver maintained first place from the start until his first pit stop, while his Red Bull counterpart, having successfully executed an undercut, took the lead until lap 32.
Exaggerated Gaps
I would classify Monaco, Austria, Britain, Hungary and Russia as races that, in this analysis, are artificially for various reasons.
In the case of Monaco, the issue is traffic. While Verstappen led from the start to the chequered flag, Hamilton was stuck behind slower drivers and was unable to do anything about it due to the narrow track's nature, which offers virtually no opportunities to overtake.
This raises a valid question, in my opinion, about whether Monaco should be included in this type of analysis, as the results of the race are primarily determined on Saturday.
In the second race at the Red Bull Ring, known as the Austrian Grand Prix, Bottas maintained a faster average pace than his teammate; however, he was not the quicker driver overall. At one point during the race, Hamilton picked up damage to his car, causing him to drop from P2 to P4.
Although he wouldn’t have posed a threat to the victorious Verstappen, had it not been for the damage, he would most likely have finished behind his rival while maintaining a significantly better race pace than Bottas. Consequently, the gap between the fastest Red Bull and the fastest Mercedes would have been smaller.
The same applies, albeit in the opposite direction, to the following race at Silverstone. Verstappen didn’t complete a single lap, having been eliminated from the race due to a collision with his title rival at Copse corner. Whether this incident is viewed as a pit maneuver or a racing incident is a discussion for another time; here, it is relevant only for its consequences in this analysis—specifically, the impact on Perez’s lap times, which were significantly affected by traffic.
Although the claim that Mercedes performs better in Britain than Red Bull is not far-fetched, the Brackley team's car was certainly not 1.502 seconds per lap faster than its competitor.
And certainly, in terms of pure pace, it wasn't 1.238 seconds faster in Hungary; it was simply Verstappen carrying damage throughout the entire race after being a victim of what has been referred to as Bottas Bowling in the first corner.
As you probably guessed, the 0.838-second margin of Mercedes' superiority in Russia is largely attributed to Verstappen starting from the back of the grid and navigating through traffic.
My Interpretation
The final tally, in my interpretation, favors Mercedes 12-9, with Abu Dhabi awarded to the Silver Arrows due to the context I described earlier.
There are numerous questions that can be raised regarding the final result. One could reasonably argue that races with exaggerated gaps should be excluded. The damaged Red Bull in Hungary certainly did not demonstrate its true potential, after all. Or that Mercedes was faster at Monza, but the data doesn't account for the fact that Bottas started from the back and faced more traffic than Perez. Or that average race pace of either number 2 driver shouldn’t be compared with that of the championship contenders due to the evident disparity in talent.
If we consider only the average pace from races in which Verstappen and Hamilton finished either first or second—specifically, Bahrain, Emilia Romagna, Portugal, Spain, France, Styria, the Netherlands, USA, Mexico, Brazil, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Abu Dhabi—then Mercedes leads head-to-head with a record of 8-5. This becomes 8-6 if the Azerbaijan Grand Prix is included.